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As the pressure mounts, eight talented teams are vying for just four coveted spots in the College Football Playoff. For the first time in the history of the CFP, we have four unbeaten teams entering the conference championship weekend, setting the stage for a potentially unprecedented playoff field or a wave of chaos.
Whether you're a die-hard fan or a casual viewer, it's time to grab your popcorn and sit tight because we're in for an exciting ride this weekend. In this piece, we will provide a rundown of the remaining CFP contenders, their current rankings, and what they stand to accomplish in the upcoming games.
With Championship Week and the final CFP Rankings on the horizon, let's look at how these teams are shaping up.
College Football Playoff
The following are the teams competing for the Playoff along with their CFP ranking and scenario for getting into the Final Four:
1. Georgia Bulldogs
They are in IF: They beat Alabama in the SEC Championship.
As the No. 1 seed, a victory would solidify their spot in the playoffs and the top overall ranking. The two-time defending national champions have a 28-game winning streak. However, given the nature of this year’s field with so many undefeated schools, a loss could send them spiraling down the rankings and out of the playoff picture.
If Alabama upsets Georgia, the Bulldogs can still get in. They would need two of the three to happen: Texas to lose to Oklahoma State, Florida State to lose to Louisville, or Michigan to lose to Iowa. This would open the door for Georgia to join Alabama and the Oregon/Washington winner in the final playoff field, along with one other team.
Georgia will argue their case with a loss no matter what, citing their wins over two teams ranked in the top 11.
2. Michigan Wolverines
They are in IF: They beat Iowa in the Big 10 championship
Unlike Georgia, Michigan faces a much easier conference championship game, and it’s very unlikely they will slip up here. If they do, they are likely out of the College Football Playoff.
A win could minimally secure their place in the playoffs as the No. 2 seed, even vault them to the No. 1 seed should Georgia lose to Alabama. Despite the pressure of the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa, even a loss would not eliminate them from contention.
If they somehow lose, they would need Georgia to beat Alabama and have either Florida State or Texas lose. This would leave an argument between them and Ohio State as the best 1-loss team still in contention, and they would have a huge argument over the Buckeyes since they beat them last week.
3. Washington Huskies
They are in IF: They beat Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship
The Huskies can secure a perfect season and their second-ever College Football Playoff berth with a victory Friday night over a team they beat earlier this year, Oregon. However, doing so will be no task, according to the FanDuel College football odds, which have installed the Ducks as a 9.5-point favorite.
If the Huskies lose, they would need a lot of chaos to happen. They would probably be out of the picture unless every team below them loses as well and they are somehow given a spot over Ohio State, a scenario many deem unlikely.
4. Florida State Seminoles
They are in IF: They beat Louisville in the ACC Championship.
Their path to the playoffs is straightforward – win, and they're in. While some detractors say the loss to Jordan Travis should be taken into account and that they are not one of the four best teams without him, history tells us (i.e. Ohio State 2014) that losing your starting quarterback isn’t a reason to move you down in the rankings.
However, a loss to Louisville in the ACC title game could have significant implications. Despite boasting an undefeated record, their schedule isn’t strong enough to keep them in the conversation should they lose. They would be ranked at the very bottom of the contending one-loss teams, plus they wouldn’t have a conference title. Even if Texas loses, there would be virtually no path to the playoff since Ohio State and Michigan would be kept above them along with the SEC and Pac-12 champion.
5. Oregon Ducks
They are in IF: They beat Washington in the Pac 12 Championship AND Georgia beats Alabama
In reality, a win regardless of the SEC Championship game still gives them a good chance of getting in. Oregon’s resume, while not graced with significant wins, is good enough in what was a competitive Pac-12 this year. Not to mention, their only loss came to No. 3 Washington on the road, where they actually outplayed them. A convincing win in a rematch with Washington gives them the conference and a likely playoff spot.
The worst case for Oregon if they win is Alabama beating Georgia and the teams above them all winning. In this scenario, Michigan and Florida State would be a lock to get in. Alabama will likely jump Oregon as the SEC champion, and the conversation would then come down to Texas, Oregon, and Georgia. While Oregon would likely have an argument edge over Texas, many will claim a one-loss Georgia with a better resume should be in over Oregon.
Oregon cannot lose. If they do, they will be eliminated.
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
They are in IF: Florida State loses, Texas loses, and Alabama loses
Don’t let the ranking fool you. Because of the fact they are not playing in their conference championship, Ohio State will also need chaos to happen behind them to get in. Last year, they were able to sneak into the playoffs after losing to Michigan and not winning the Big 10, but the landscape was much different around them. With so many undefeated teams going into Championship Saturday, it’s going to be a challenge in 2023.
The simple fact is they need Florida State, Texas, and Alabama to ALL lose. That puts Georgia, Michigan, and the Pac-12 champion in the playoff. Ohio State will likely get the fourth spot in this scenario.
Ohio State will make arguments even if just Florida State or Washington loses. They will point to a narrow loss against Michigan and quality wins over teams Notre Dame and Penn State as a reason they should be ranked as the top one-loss team, regardless of conference championships.
7. Texas Longhorns
They are in IF: They win over Oklahoma State, Georgia beats Alabama, and Florida State OR Michigan loses.
Despite a head-to-head road win over Alabama, one of the best triumphs of the season, Texas still needs some pieces to fall into place. A victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game would likely put Texas ahead of Ohio State and the loser of the Pac-12 title game.
However, the Longhorns also require a loss by Michigan or Florida State to enter the coveted fourth spot. Some external factors may be out of their control, but the Longhorns' fate largely hinges on their performance in the upcoming games.
If Alabama beats Georgia, this is where the CFP committee nightmare scenario could come into play and all bets are off. Assuming Florida State and Michigan win, and the Pac-12 champion gets the third spot, the argument will come down to an SEC champion Alabama, Big 12 champion Texas, and one-loss Ohio State and Georgia.
Texas will claim their victory over Alabama on the road earlier in the season should be the determining factor. However, in this scenario, it would leave out an SEC champion, something that many consider unthinkable and has never happened in the CFP era. Additionally, Alabama will have a strength of victory argument over Texas, including a win over the No. 1 team.
8. Alabama Crimson Tide
They are in IF: They beat Georgia in the SEC Championship and Texas loses to Oklahoma State
Again, don’t let the ranking fool you. If Alabama can pull off a victory over the two-time defending national champions, Georgia, a team that has not lost since their 2021 SEC Championship game against Alabama, the Crimson Tide have an excellent chance of landing in the Final Four regardless of what happens around them.
Other combinations could get Alabama in very easily with a win, including a Florida State loss, but the tricky scenario comes with the one laid out in the section above. If it comes down to Texas and Alabama, will the committee use their head-to-head loss to Texas as a reason to leave an SEC champion out for the first time in history?